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Türkiye raises 2025 inflation forecast to 28.5 pct

Source: Xinhua

Editor: huaxia

2025-09-08 20:20:17

Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz (C) announces the country's new Medium-Term Program for 2026-2028 at a press conference in Ankara, Türkiye, on Sept. 8, 2025. Türkiye has revised upward its inflation forecast for 2025 to 28.5 percent, according to the country's new Medium-Term Program for 2026-2028, announced by Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz on Monday. (Mustafa Kaya/Handout via Xinhua)

ANKARA, Sept. 8 (Xinhua) -- Türkiye has revised upward its inflation forecast for 2025 to 28.5 percent, according to the country's new Medium-Term Program for 2026-2028, announced by Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz on Monday.

The updated projection marks an 11-percentage-point increase from last year's estimate of 17.5 percent. The 2026 target was also raised, from 9.7 percent to 16 percent. Inflation is now expected to fall into single digits in 2027, when it is forecast at 9 percent, and further ease to 8 percent in 2028.

Despite the upward revisions, Yilmaz said the government remains committed to its disinflation strategy. "Our program focuses on the fight against inflation. After the transition period, a continuous disinflation process has been in place since June 2024," he told reporters.

He stressed that Türkiye has already recorded a significant decline in inflation since June 2024 despite external and cyclical challenges.

"Inflation has fallen by a total of 42.5 points, demonstrating the impact of our tight monetary and fiscal policies. With improvements in inflation expectations and trend indicators, we expect the disinflation process to continue uninterrupted through September and the remainder of the year," Yilmaz said.

Alongside disinflation, the government also set growth targets, projecting GDP expansion of 3.8 percent in 2026, 4.3 percent in 2027, and 5 percent in 2028, Yilmaz said.

Türkiye's annual inflation rose more than expected in August, reaching nearly 33 percent.

The country has been grappling persistently with high inflation for years. In response, the central bank sharply raised its benchmark interest rate from 8.5 percent in June 2023 to 50 percent by March 2024. As inflation began to ease, the bank started cutting rates in December 2024, lowering them by 250 basis points to 42.5 percent by March 2025.

However, following the brief detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on March 19, market volatility prompted the central bank to abruptly raise rates by 350 basis points to 46 percent, ending the easing cycle.

Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz (C) announces the country's new Medium-Term Program for 2026-2028 at a press conference in Ankara, Türkiye, on Sept. 8, 2025. Türkiye has revised upward its inflation forecast for 2025 to 28.5 percent, according to the country's new Medium-Term Program for 2026-2028, announced by Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz on Monday. (Mustafa Kaya/Handout via Xinhua)